18 Mar

BTG Hotel (600258): 19Q1 hotel REVPAR growth rate segmentation of high-end and franchise expansion trend unchanged

BTG Hotel (600258): 19Q1 hotel REVPAR growth rate segmentation of high-end and franchise expansion trend unchanged
[Event]BTG Hotel released 杭州桑拿网 the first quarter of 2019 quarterly report, and the company realized operating income of 19.4.4 billion, an annual increase of 0.99%; net profit attributable to mother 0.7.4 billion, a decrease of one year.90%; net profit after deduction is 0.56 ‰, a decrease of 3 per year.04%; EPS is 0.0756 yuan / share.Non-recurring profit and loss items are mainly financial investment income of zero.2000000000. [Comment]1) Revenue increased slightly, net profit decreased, and RevPAR was lower than expected. ①Revenue end: hotel business and attraction operation business respectively realized business.7.3 billion, 1.70 ppm, each increase by 0.67%, 4.49%. Hotel business: According to the hotel brand, such as the Home Hotel Group, the first travel stock hotels have achieved revenue of 15 respectively.6.2 billion, 2.12 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.42%, 2.57%. The slower growth rate of Rujia’s revenue was mainly due to the closing of stores and upgrading, which led to a decrease in direct sales revenue. Scenic business: The increase in revenue is mainly due to the increase in the number of visitors to Nanshan Park1.90%; from August 2018, the ticket retention ratio will be increased from 40% to 50%; and the purchase and sales model of some commodities will be changed to the pure rental venue model. ② Cost: The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin decreased by 0.61pct to 93.92%. Hotel business: maximized profit of 59.13 million yuan, a decrease of 10 per year.53%; of which, Home Inns Group realized a profit increase of 98.37 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.85%, mainly due to the decline in RevPAR of economy and mid- to high-end hotels. Scenic area business: realized total profit of RMB 98.78 million, with an annual increase of 10.66%. ③ Expense end: Expense control is effective, and the expense rate decreases by 0 every year during the period.97 points to 85.70%, in which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratios continuously change -0.44 points / -0.03 points / +0.05pct / -0.56 points to 70.55% / 12.88% / 0.33% / 1.94%. ④ Profit side: Net interest rate dropped by 0.11 points to 3.81%. 2) Operational data of the hotel business ① Operational data by brand: If Home RevPAR changes, the first trip will be more stable in 2019Q1, and all hotels Home Inn RevPAR will be 137 yuan / room · night, every time -0.5%; ADR179 yuan / room · night, +2 for two years.7%; October 76.7% per year -2.5 points.Among them, the mature hotel RevPAR 135 yuan / room night, many times -3.0%; ADR 173 yuan / room · night, +0 for ten years.1%; occ 78.4%, twice -2.5 points. In 2019Q1, the first travel stock hotel RevPAR 212 yuan / room · night, multiple +1.6%; ADR390 yuan / room · night, multiple +1.7%; October 54.40% every year -0.1pct. ② Operational data by product: Affected by the upgrade, economical short-term mid-to-high-end 2019Q1, such as RevPAR -2 for all hotels in the economy.3%, 5 higher than the middle and high end.7 points.From the perspective of mature stores, 2019Q1 economical RevPAR is longer -2.4%, which is 4 higher than the middle and high end.4pct. In the first quarter of 2019, the first travel stock hotel budget RevPAR was at least +12.6%, lower than the high-end -1.3% is higher than 13.9 points. ③ Operational data by model: The franchise model expanded rapidly in the first quarter of 2019, such as RevPAR +1 for all hotels directly operated by Home Inn.9%, -1 for earlier franchise management.6% is higher than 3.5 points.Direct-operated stores have better locations and operations, and RevPAR outperforms franchised stores.However, in terms of the number of new stores, 622 new stores were opened in 2018, including 578 franchise stores, accounting for 92.93%. As of the end of 2018, the company’s franchised stores accounted for 77.15%, the number of rooms accounted for 72.76%, the franchise chain trend remains unchanged. 3) Profit forecast: The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.05/1.21/1.28 yuan, corresponding to 19 for PE.5/16.9/15.9 times.As a domestic hotel chain giant, BTG Hotel has a steady growth in hotel business, a long-term competitive advantage, and has core driving factors. It is expected to develop and repair in the future and give it a “recommended” rating. Risk reminder: macroeconomic downside risks; hotel franchise management risks; hotel renovations are less than expected risks.